Refining the Orange

A couple of days ago, I wrote about what the CRA poll in L'Acadie Nouvelle could mean for the NDP, the support of which was purported to be 10%.

After talking to some folks and letting the information ruminate, I am going to remove some of the ambiguity. I wrote that if the NDP gets 10%, then they will win a seat or two, and if they win a seat or two, then it or they must come from either Tantramar, Fredericton-Silverwood, Fredericton-Lincoln or Caraquet.

If the first condition is negated (i.e. the NDP does not get 10%), then the subsequent clauses in the reasoning are rendered moot. However, if the first condition turns out to be satisfied, then the remaining clauses are active. This is because I really don't have a position on whether or not the party can achieve the 10%; all I know is that if they do, the support must be coming from somewhere.

At any rate, two days ago I described Tantramar and Fredericton-Silverwood as the best shots, and Fredericton-Lincoln and Caraquet as "reaches".

I am going to amend that and offer up a bolder prediction:

If the NDP gets 10% of the vote, thus giving them an opportunity at a seat or two, the two remaining real possibilities (down from the four that I listed the other day) are Dennis Atchison in Fredericton-Silverwood and Stephane Doiron in Caraquet.

Fredericton-Silverwood: I work in this riding (I actually live in Fredericton-Nashwaaksis, which I believe will be won by PC Mike Smith, but I digress) and talk to plenty of people here. I am getting the sense that Atchison is the anti-Brad Green candidate of choice. I believe that the race will be very tight and involving all three candidates, and that the only thing keeping Liberal candidate Rick Miles in the race is some (but not all!) of the Liberal base vote and traditional bifurcated party thinking.

Caraquet: as I mentioned the other day the NDP has been known to offer up a where-the-hell-did-that-come-from candidate in the north every once in a while, like Dalhousie in 1995 and Nepisiguit in 1999. Whereas a couple days ago I thought Caraquet could be it, now I am moving this from a reach to a very real possibility. I read this in today's L'Acadie Nouvelle:

• Mais il y a un troisieme joueur tres important dans cette election a Caraquet, en la personne de Stephane Doiron, candidat du NPD. intelligent et articule, il possede l'avantage d'avoir ete au coeur des manifestations contre le changement de l'hopital sans tenter d'y trouver un quelconque avatage politique, comme il l'a reproche a M. Albert... Il pourrait recuperer beaucoup de votes de personnes mecontentes de la position liberale.

You'll have to excuse the lack of proper punctuation. I don't know how to put accents and the like into the blogger interface. I did offer to pay CBC to help me out with it, but they refused. Regardless, Doiron has significant support up there in Godin Country. The above quote reinforces what I had heard from others, but it seems more real when in print.

At any rate, there you have it. The best-case maximum scenario for the NDP is likely two, so I have "grown a pair" and listed two, rather than four. I have refined the orange.