A Fool Predicts...
Alright, I think I need to weigh in here. Spinks, Harrap and Scott have gotten into the act, not to mention NBPolitico's bandwidth-choking opus.
Let's declare a brief moratorium on reasearch, fact-checking and coherence so that I may contribute.
Today's CRA poll has the Liberals, Tories and NDP at 44%, 42% and 10%, respectively. Let's assume, for a brief moment, that these numbers are accurate and will reflect the final tallies on election night - it's a bit of a stretch, but doing any more or any less would allow for a level of subjectivity that I am just not comfortable with. The first two numbers are the thrust of the thing, of course: everybody wants to know who will be Premier. The third number, though, is an interesting one.
If the NDP achieves 10% of the popular vote despite being short seven candidates and one Weir... they may just win a seat or two. Think about it for a moment: the support must be coming from somewhere. In 2003, the NDP got 9.7% of the popular vote, representing 36,989 ballots. 10% of the popular vote (the current level of support according to CRA) would be 38,133. At least half of the 2006 NDP candidates will come in below 500 votes and account for 9,000 to 10,000 of the party's total. That leaves 28,500 for the remaining 24 candidates. It is tough to figure how 28,500 votes could be cast for 24 candidates without seeing at least one of them elected. Like I said: the support must be coming from somewhere. But where?
I have scanned the NDP slate and done some research. My conclusion: there are only about four that are even conceivable, and I had to reach for two of them. Let's get the other 51 out of the way first.
I've got Tories in Bathurst, Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou, Centre-Péninsule-Saint-Saveur, Tracadie-Sheila, Miramichi Centre, Southwest Miramichi, Rogersville-Kouchibouguac, Moncton East, Moncton West, Moncton Crescent, Petitcodiac, Riverview, Albert, Hampton-Kings, Rothesay, Saint John Portland, Oromocto, Fredericton-Nashwaaksis, New Maryland-Sunbury West, York, York North, Woodstock, Carleton, Restigouche-La-Vallée, Edmundston-Saint-Basile, and Madawaska-les-Lacs.
I've got Liberals in Miramichi-Bay du Vin, Campbellton-Restigouche Centre, Dalhousie-Restigouche East, Nigadoo-Chaleur, Nepisiguit, Miramichi Bay-Neguac, Kent, Kent South, Shediac-Cap-Pelé, Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe, Dieppe Centre-Lewisville, Moncton North, Kings East, Quispamsis, Saint John-Fundy, Saint John East, Saint John Harbour, Saint John Lancaster, Fundy-River Valley, Charlotte-The Isles, Charlotte-Campobello, Grand Lake-Gagetown, Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak, Victoria-Tobique, and Grand Falls-Drummond-Saint-André.
That's 26 Tories and 25 Liberals.
I said that I would have four ridings for the end because the NDP may - may - have a shot in them. Of the four, I have two with what I consider to be decent chances are two that I had to reach for. Both of the "reaches" are likely to be Liberal seats, taking the total to 27 Liberals, 26 Tories. The other two, however, are both Tory seats, so if the NDP is shutout, I am predicting 28 Tories and 27 Liberals.
But I am not predicting a shutout.
I am predicting that the NDP will win one (or possibly two) seat(s), and that any winner or winners will come from among these four ridings:
- Tantramar. Virgil Hammock is a popular municipal politician in Sackville and the NDP has held the seat in the past. There is currently no incumbent. NBPolitico has this one as "leans NDP".
- Fredericton-Silverwood. Dennis Atchison is a strong candidate who greatly increased the NDP vote in Fredericton North while Nan Luke and John Carty (federally, twice) had a fair bit of success on the south side - this riding could be ready.
- Fredericton-Lincoln. I don't really have a strong feeling about this one, but Brewer has gotten plenty of media attention and has a very strong sign presence. It is included here because I think that it is possible.
- Caraquet. That's right, I said Caraquet. Whereas the other three that I have listed here are all virtually assured of a respectable showing (all three should easily approach 20%), this one is anything but. The most likely scenario for Stephane Doiron in Caraquet is that he, like the NDP usually does there provincially, gets less than ten percent. However, I believe that he has a shot at winning; a sort of potential lightning-in-a-bottle situation. Think Dalhousie 1995 or Nepisiguit 1999. These things do happen, and I think that if the NDP is going to have a where-the-hell-did-that-guy-come-from candidate this time, Doiron will be it. Doiron was apparently involved in a fight to keep the hospital open in Caraquet and has many of those activists working with him on the campaign and could be joined by Yvon Godin for the stretch drive.
posted by Alvy Singer @ 3:09 PM
14 comments
14 Comments:
I am curious about your prediction for Miramichi Centre. I have not seen any comments on the candidates on any the blog sites.
Since this is a traditional Liberal riding, what is your rationale for this prediction?
"A Fool Predicts..." I enjoy your blog but you name this update correctly.
NDP may get 10% but it will be spread out through 48 ridings or so. They may win 1 seat. Possible.
My crystal ball tells me comfortable Liberal majority. 32 plus Liberals. Rest of the pie you can divide anyway you want. Take note of this. I am even willing to bet a dollar on it to be given to your favourite charity :).
Alvy - you've got 27 Tories, 27 Liberals, 2 NDP but that equals 56.
Which way is it.
I am intrigued that your scenario could show us 27-27-1. I wonder if the NDP might try to prop up a Liberal government under some kind of Peterson-Rae type deal?
I don't think that what you are proposing, anon 5.59, is really possible, as I outlined above.
If the NDP gets 10% (they got around 20% in NB in the federal election and are at 10% in today's CRA poll), it will be virtually impossible for them not to win a seat.
Take a look at their slate. Half of their 48 candidates will eat up very few of that 10% provincial total, leaving something like 28,500 votes for the other 24 candidates. Let's say that another 15 ridings take 800 votes on average, that's 12,000 votes, leaving 16,500 for the nine best NDP candidates. Apportioning 16,500 votes among 9 candidates without finding a winner would be a tremendous fluke. Try it with a pencil and a piece of paper (or an Excel sheet if you are more technically inclined than I).
I am not predicting great success here for the NDP. I am watching the same campaign that everybody else is. This is why the CRA poll figure jumped out at me. If the 10% is to be believed and holds, it is a virtual certainty that the NDP takes a seat.
In view of the NDP's slate, the lack of Weir, and the seven empties, I feel confident in saying that there are only two real possibilities:
(1) The NDP will not achieve 10%, or
(2) The NDP will win at least one seat.
NBPolitico, I seem to have made a typo of some kind.
At any rate, I have the 51 no-chance-in-hell for NDP ridings at 26 PC, 25 Liberal.
Of the four remaining, I have two as likely Liberal (Lincoln and Caraquet) and two as likely PC (Silverwood and Tantramar).
Because Lincoln and Caraquet are real reaches for the NDP, I think that a likely scenario is:
Liberal 27, PC 26, NDP 2
If the NDP manages one seat, I would say:
Liberal 27, PC 27, NDP 1
If the NDP is shutout, I would say:
PC 28, Liberal 27
Elvy: So basically what your saying is that the winner will ultimately have to negotiate with the one NDP seat to form government. Quite the scenerio and interesting indeed y friend.
nbpolitico said: I wonder if the NDP might try to prop up a Liberal government under some kind of Peterson-Rae type deal?
Don't even muse about that. If that is any indication of how the direction of the province will be, I'm packing my bags and heading back to Ottawa. That Peterson-Rae government ultimately led to a Rae government that routinely had budget deficits of $10 billion year. And by the time the left half of that coalition left office in 1995, the debt had surpassed a breakthrough high $100 billion. That's pretty bad considering from Confederation to the last Conservative budget in 1985 fiscal year, successive Ontario governments had only accumulated $33 billion in debt.
As Mike Harris once said, "the David Peterson-Bob Rae era represented 'ten lost years' for the province of Ontario. Hard to disagree after you look at the numbers above(even with a recession) That's just brutal.
In the last election - when Fowlie seemed to be losing but pulled off a narrow last minute win, Graham was rumoured to have said "Until ten minutes ago I thought I'd be Premier" -- if Fowlie lost, it would have been 27-27-1 -- which means Graham had in mind forming a coalition with Weir.
I agree with your take on the NDP -- and which are the strong ones (Fredericton-Silverwood and Tantramar) and which the stretch ones (Fredericton-Lincoln and Caraquet).
I noticed that during the debate Brewer made repeated mention of the Caraquet hospital -- methinks she is seeing this as a possible NDP gain too.
Scott, I agree with you on Peterson-Rae but not to worry, it will not happen. Liberals are forming a majority government.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
I have to say Alvy, you certainly have a way with words!! I literally laughed out loud to "NBPolitico's bandwidth-choking opus." (No offence Politico....but that was funny)
LOL
Interesting predictions guys.....I usually wait until the night before .......but I'll probably put mine up Friday night or Saturday.....I'm still up in the air on a few ridings.... so no sense posting what I’d probably change before the week is out.
Alvy, do you really think Brewer can pull it off? Or are you just being generous?? I just don't think she can realistically do it.....unfortunately. I believe NB would be better served with a third party in the Leg. Even if it only had one or two members in the house.
8:05 PM
Your overall seat total predictions are basically what Virgil Hammock is trying to sell to the voters of Tantramar. In essence, he is running as an independent with NDP leanings, and is trying to convince voters that he could be the swing vote in a deadlocked legislature. I have heard mixed comments from people who know Hammock personally, however, and there seem to be some people, normally NDP voters, who do not like him on a personal level. The question is whether or not they object to the Lord government more. My overall sense though is that the Liberal candidate will likely be running third here.
Interesting chat about a Grit/NDP alliance but, not to be a fly in the ointment, there are a few things to consider before marching hand-in-hand singing "Solidarity Forever".
1. Even if the Tories and Grits were to tie after next Monday's vote, Lord would still have the first opportunity to form a government. Remember Russell MacLellan in '97? Liberal/NDP tie. LG let the Grits stay in office. (The same thing happened in Saskatchewan in 1999). In fact, Lord wouldn't have to resign unless he was clearly defeated in an election.
2. The Rae/Peterson deal is an interesting analogy but, even after they formed their alliance, they were still in opposition. They had to bring down the Miller gov't (over its throne speech, if I recall) on a non-confidence vote. Only then did the LG offer the job to Peterson. Moreover, in the Ontario situation, the NDP/Liberal alliance represented a clear majority, which was why it worked.
In NB, if the Liberals were looking to one or two dippers to put them over the top, they might have some difficulty. Graham would still need to fill the Speaker's chair, so the LG might not be well-disposed to just handing the keys over. (He could always opt for another election). In any event, if there were a tied Leg and Lord said he could govern, the LG would have to let him try, which would mean six weeks to three months before the opposition got its first chance to topple the Tories. Strange days indeed!
In any event, if Shawn is going to be premier, he needs to do it cleanly. If he falls just short again, even tied, there is no guarantee that he would still be leader when the Leg returned. Pure supposition, of course, but it keeps it interesting.
Lord has no hope. There is a tide turning against him and his party. It is like Fundy tide, very high and Tories will be drowned in it. Lord has failed to fool the people third time. Plain and simple.
"NBPolitico's bandwidth-choking opus." (No offence Politico....but that was funny)
LOL
I agree, I had a good laugh!
herringchoker - What you are describing is exactly what I was wondering about. Frank Miller also faced the legislature and I suspect that Lord would probably do that same but if the Libs and NDP banded together and brought it down within weeks, constitutional precedent would suggest the LG would have to offer the Liberals a try at getting confidence.
I am not suggesting this is what will or should happen, just an interesting thing for a political nerd to think about.
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