Choose your own Adventure

Happy Election Day!

If you have already voted, go to (a).
If you have not yet voted, go to (b).

(a)

• If you voted Progressive Conservative, go to (1).
• If you voted Liberal, go to (2).
• If you voted NDP, go to (3).

• (1) Congratulations on your decision. You have voted for a centre-right party that has governed to varying degrees of success throughout the last seven years. As a bonus, you can rest safe if the knowledge that you have supported a party that initiated a referendum, set for 2008, designed to make your vote count beginning in 2010 or 2011.
• (2) Congratulations on your decision. You have voted for a centre-right party that has been itching to govern for seven years. As a bonus, you can rest safe in the knowledge that you have most likely supported a great local candidate in a superior Liberal slate this year.
• (3) Congratulations on your decision. You have voted for a centre-left party that has been missing its legislative representation since the departure of its former leader. As a bonus, you can rest safe in the knowledge that you have cast a ballot for the proposition that New Brunswick still needs a centre-left voice in the legislature.

(b) You don't have time to be reading First, Pass the Toast right now. Go vote and then wait patiently for Spinks and PNB to start blogging the results.

Final Predictions

Here we go. Last chance at prediction. Nothing scientific here.

1. Campbellton-Restigouche Centre: Roy Boudreau (Lib)
2. Dalhousie-Restigouche East: Donald Arseneault (Lib)
3. Nigadoo-Chaleur: Roland Hache (Lib)
4. Bathurst: Nancy McKay (PC)
5. Nepisiguit: Cheryl Lavoie (Lib)
6. Caraquet: Stephane Doiron (NDP)
7. Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou: Paul Robichaud (PC)
8. Centre-Peninsule-Saint-Saveur: Louis-Phillipe McGraw (PC)
9. Tracadie-Sheila: Claude Landry (PC)
10. Miramichi Bay-Neguac: Carmel Robichaud (Lib)
11. Miramichi-Bay du Vin: Bill Fraser (Lib)
12. Miramichi Centre: George Smith (PC)
13. Southwest Miramichi: Brent Taylor (PC)
14. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac: Rose-May Poirier (PC)
15. Kent: Shawn Graham (Lib)
16. Kent South: Nadine Hebert (Lib)
17. Shediac-Cap-Pele: Victor Boudreau (Lib)
18. Tantramar: Mike Olscamp (PC)
19. Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe: Bernard LeBlanc (Lib)
20. Dieppe Centre-Lewisville: Bruno Roy (Lib)
21. Moncton East: Bernard Lord (PC)
22. Moncton West: Joan MacAlpine-Stiles (PC)
23. Moncton North: Mike Murphy (Lib)
24. Moncton Crescent: John Betts (PC)
25. Petitcodiac: Wally Stiles (PC)
26. Riverview: Bruce Fitch (PC)
27. Albert: Wayne Steeves (PC)
28. Kings East: Bruce Northrup (PC)
29. Hampton-Kings: Bev Harrison (PC)
30. Quispamsis: Mary Schryer (Lib)
31. Saint John-Fundy: Stuart Jamieson (Lib)
32. Rothesay: Margaret-Ann Blaney (PC)
33. Saint John East: Roly MacIntyre (Lib)
34. Saint John Harbour: Ed Doherty (Lib)
35. Saint John Portland: Colleen Knudeson (Lib)
36. Saint John Lancaster: Abel Leblanc (Lib)
37. Fundy-River Valley: Jack Keir (Lib)
38. Charlotte-The Isles: Rick Doucet (Lib)
39. Charlotte-Campobello: Robert Tinker (Lib)
40. Oromocto: Jody Carr (PC)
41. Grand Lake-Gagetown: Eugene McGinley (Lib)
42. Fredericton-Nashwaaksis: T.J. Burke (Lib)
43. Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak: Kelly Lamrock (Lib)
44. Fredericton-Lincoln: Greg Byrne (Lib)
45. Fredericton-Silverwood: Brad Green (PC)
46. New Maryland-Sunbury West: Keith Ashfield (PC)
47. York: Carl Urquhart (PC)
48. York North: Kirk MacDonald (PC)
49. Woodstock: David Alward (PC)
50. Carleton: Dale Graham (PC)
51. Victoria-Tobique: Larry Kennedy (Lib)
52. Grand Falls-Drummond-Saint-Andre: Ron Ouellette (Lib)
53. Restigouche-La-Vallee: Percy Mockler (PC)
54. Edmundston-Saint-Basile: Madeleine Dube (PC)
55. Madawaska-les-Lacs: Jeannot Volpe (PC)

That's 27 Liberals, 27 Tories, and 1 NDPer.

Refining the Orange

A couple of days ago, I wrote about what the CRA poll in L'Acadie Nouvelle could mean for the NDP, the support of which was purported to be 10%.

After talking to some folks and letting the information ruminate, I am going to remove some of the ambiguity. I wrote that if the NDP gets 10%, then they will win a seat or two, and if they win a seat or two, then it or they must come from either Tantramar, Fredericton-Silverwood, Fredericton-Lincoln or Caraquet.

If the first condition is negated (i.e. the NDP does not get 10%), then the subsequent clauses in the reasoning are rendered moot. However, if the first condition turns out to be satisfied, then the remaining clauses are active. This is because I really don't have a position on whether or not the party can achieve the 10%; all I know is that if they do, the support must be coming from somewhere.

At any rate, two days ago I described Tantramar and Fredericton-Silverwood as the best shots, and Fredericton-Lincoln and Caraquet as "reaches".

I am going to amend that and offer up a bolder prediction:

If the NDP gets 10% of the vote, thus giving them an opportunity at a seat or two, the two remaining real possibilities (down from the four that I listed the other day) are Dennis Atchison in Fredericton-Silverwood and Stephane Doiron in Caraquet.

Fredericton-Silverwood: I work in this riding (I actually live in Fredericton-Nashwaaksis, which I believe will be won by PC Mike Smith, but I digress) and talk to plenty of people here. I am getting the sense that Atchison is the anti-Brad Green candidate of choice. I believe that the race will be very tight and involving all three candidates, and that the only thing keeping Liberal candidate Rick Miles in the race is some (but not all!) of the Liberal base vote and traditional bifurcated party thinking.

Caraquet: as I mentioned the other day the NDP has been known to offer up a where-the-hell-did-that-come-from candidate in the north every once in a while, like Dalhousie in 1995 and Nepisiguit in 1999. Whereas a couple days ago I thought Caraquet could be it, now I am moving this from a reach to a very real possibility. I read this in today's L'Acadie Nouvelle:

• Mais il y a un troisieme joueur tres important dans cette election a Caraquet, en la personne de Stephane Doiron, candidat du NPD. intelligent et articule, il possede l'avantage d'avoir ete au coeur des manifestations contre le changement de l'hopital sans tenter d'y trouver un quelconque avatage politique, comme il l'a reproche a M. Albert... Il pourrait recuperer beaucoup de votes de personnes mecontentes de la position liberale.

You'll have to excuse the lack of proper punctuation. I don't know how to put accents and the like into the blogger interface. I did offer to pay CBC to help me out with it, but they refused. Regardless, Doiron has significant support up there in Godin Country. The above quote reinforces what I had heard from others, but it seems more real when in print.

At any rate, there you have it. The best-case maximum scenario for the NDP is likely two, so I have "grown a pair" and listed two, rather than four. I have refined the orange.

A Fool Predicts...

Alright, I think I need to weigh in here. Spinks, Harrap and Scott have gotten into the act, not to mention NBPolitico's bandwidth-choking opus.

Let's declare a brief moratorium on reasearch, fact-checking and coherence so that I may contribute.

Today's CRA poll has the Liberals, Tories and NDP at 44%, 42% and 10%, respectively. Let's assume, for a brief moment, that these numbers are accurate and will reflect the final tallies on election night - it's a bit of a stretch, but doing any more or any less would allow for a level of subjectivity that I am just not comfortable with. The first two numbers are the thrust of the thing, of course: everybody wants to know who will be Premier. The third number, though, is an interesting one.

If the NDP achieves 10% of the popular vote despite being short seven candidates and one Weir... they may just win a seat or two. Think about it for a moment: the support must be coming from somewhere. In 2003, the NDP got 9.7% of the popular vote, representing 36,989 ballots. 10% of the popular vote (the current level of support according to CRA) would be 38,133. At least half of the 2006 NDP candidates will come in below 500 votes and account for 9,000 to 10,000 of the party's total. That leaves 28,500 for the remaining 24 candidates. It is tough to figure how 28,500 votes could be cast for 24 candidates without seeing at least one of them elected. Like I said: the support must be coming from somewhere. But where?

I have scanned the NDP slate and done some research. My conclusion: there are only about four that are even conceivable, and I had to reach for two of them. Let's get the other 51 out of the way first.

I've got Tories in Bathurst, Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou, Centre-Péninsule-Saint-Saveur, Tracadie-Sheila, Miramichi Centre, Southwest Miramichi, Rogersville-Kouchibouguac, Moncton East, Moncton West, Moncton Crescent, Petitcodiac, Riverview, Albert, Hampton-Kings, Rothesay, Saint John Portland, Oromocto, Fredericton-Nashwaaksis, New Maryland-Sunbury West, York, York North, Woodstock, Carleton, Restigouche-La-Vallée, Edmundston-Saint-Basile, and Madawaska-les-Lacs.

I've got Liberals in Miramichi-Bay du Vin, Campbellton-Restigouche Centre, Dalhousie-Restigouche East, Nigadoo-Chaleur, Nepisiguit, Miramichi Bay-Neguac, Kent, Kent South, Shediac-Cap-Pelé, Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe, Dieppe Centre-Lewisville, Moncton North, Kings East, Quispamsis, Saint John-Fundy, Saint John East, Saint John Harbour, Saint John Lancaster, Fundy-River Valley, Charlotte-The Isles, Charlotte-Campobello, Grand Lake-Gagetown, Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak, Victoria-Tobique, and Grand Falls-Drummond-Saint-André.

That's 26 Tories and 25 Liberals.

I said that I would have four ridings for the end because the NDP may - may - have a shot in them. Of the four, I have two with what I consider to be decent chances are two that I had to reach for. Both of the "reaches" are likely to be Liberal seats, taking the total to 27 Liberals, 26 Tories. The other two, however, are both Tory seats, so if the NDP is shutout, I am predicting 28 Tories and 27 Liberals.

But I am not predicting a shutout.

I am predicting that the NDP will win one (or possibly two) seat(s), and that any winner or winners will come from among these four ridings:

• Tantramar. Virgil Hammock is a popular municipal politician in Sackville and the NDP has held the seat in the past. There is currently no incumbent. NBPolitico has this one as "leans NDP".
• Fredericton-Silverwood. Dennis Atchison is a strong candidate who greatly increased the NDP vote in Fredericton North while Nan Luke and John Carty (federally, twice) had a fair bit of success on the south side - this riding could be ready.
• Fredericton-Lincoln. I don't really have a strong feeling about this one, but Brewer has gotten plenty of media attention and has a very strong sign presence. It is included here because I think that it is possible.
• Caraquet. That's right, I said Caraquet. Whereas the other three that I have listed here are all virtually assured of a respectable showing (all three should easily approach 20%), this one is anything but. The most likely scenario for Stephane Doiron in Caraquet is that he, like the NDP usually does there provincially, gets less than ten percent. However, I believe that he has a shot at winning; a sort of potential lightning-in-a-bottle situation. Think Dalhousie 1995 or Nepisiguit 1999. These things do happen, and I think that if the NDP is going to have a where-the-hell-did-that-guy-come-from candidate this time, Doiron will be it. Doiron was apparently involved in a fight to keep the hospital open in Caraquet and has many of those activists working with him on the campaign and could be joined by Yvon Godin for the stretch drive.

Final Prediction: 27 Tories, 27 Liberals, 1 NDP.

A Real Poll

L'Acadie Nouvelle published a Corporate Research Associates poll today that shows the Liberals at 44%, the Tories at 42% and the NDP at 10%.

The final results in 2003 were Tories 45.4%, Liberals 44.4%, NDP 9.7%. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

I'll be back later today.

An Open Letter

Dear Jerkasses,

Please stop vandalizing election signs.

Look, I realize that applying naughty words and drawings to election signage is a time-honoured tradition for knuckle-draggers like yourselves.

Look, I realize that you may be at that strange age wherein you have learned to read political literature but have not yet learned to think critically about it and as a result you (a) falsely tout yourself as an intellectual to any naive young woman who has consumed enough jello shots to listen to your fallacy-laden schtick, (b) chronically misquote everybody from Marx to Limbaugh, and (c) figure that kicking down some coroplast signage at 3 a.m. is a better form of political protest than organizing, volunteering or, uh, voting.

Look, I realize that election campaigns are a cherised, unique and infrequent spray-painting opportunity that only comes around every four years; a sort of Vandalism Olympics, if you will.

Look, I realize that peer pressure is leading you to (a) establish your alpha-male status by being the first in your pack to vandalize a sign or (b) establish submissive membership in a pack by joining in when the alpha-males begin vandalizing signs.

Look, I realize that William Forrestall, Greg Byrne and Allison Brewer would look better with soulpatches.

But please stop vandalizing election signs.

Sincerely,
Alvy

Bernard Lord a Master Debator

First things first: my deepest apologies for not being around for the past ten days or so. I'm going to have to see a doctor about this atrophied blog.

On to the english debate analysis!

Consider the pool of undecided voters who watched last night's debate and what their reactions would be. Undecideds are the only ones still "in the game". For those of us who have already decided, watching a leader's debate quickly devolves into a sort of dissonant self-congratulatory exercise wherein we each confirm our own beliefs. For an undecided, however, this stuff can actually mean something.

Being a decided voter, I can only speculate as to the perspective of an undecided voter (like when CNN's Anderson Cooper describes the plight of Katrina victims or when Monte Solberg tries to figure out what we humans are feeling). That said, I'll do my best.

I suppose that the important thing is how likely an undecided voter is to vote for a particular party after watching the debate, compared to how likely she was to vote for that same party before having watched the debate. That is: how well did each leader perform relative to the expectations of an undecided voter?

• Bernard Lord "won" the debate. Decided, undecided, young, old, conservative, liberal, social democratic, tall, short... all can agree that Lord won the debate. I woke up this morning and Mrs. Singer looked at me and said "Lord won the debate". I jumped in the shower and thought to myself "Lord won the debate". I started my car and the radio said "Lord won the debate". I got to work and my colleague said "Lord won the debate". In about two hours I'm going to go to the Deli for lunch and the cashier is going to say "seventy three cents your change, Lord won the debate, enjoy your tuna wrap".
• Shawn Graham was okay. He certainly wasn't a disaster. The problem is, from the undecided voter perspective, he didn't look like a Premier. He was the only person on stage who had the task of enabling the audience to envision him as Premier (Brewer clearly won't be Premier and Lord already is). I don't think he did well in that sense, if only because he was out-classed by Lord (who, in excess of what was needed, looked positively Prime Ministerial at times) and, on at least one occasion, Brewer.
• Allison Brewer was okay, too. The thing is: she was working from a different set of expectations than the other two leaders. Nobody is asking her to look like a Premier; her job is to show that her or any of the other NDP candidates can act as a competent moderator who holds the red guys and blue guys to account on their promises. I think she did that job. She was at her best when reminding the audience about the Liberals' petulant childishness in the legislature and dubious job creation history (I believe that at one point early in the debate she referred to Graham's bit about a "can-do attitude" as a "call centre attitude"). She shuffled her papers a bit and had difficulty maintaining eye contact with the camera. Those are rookie mistakes but they don't really reveal anything to an undecided voter because, well, she is a rookie and people expect those sorts of mistakes.
  

On the measure of raw, uncontextualized performance, I would say that the order of finish was 1. Lord, 2. Graham and 3. Brewer. On the more important measure of performance relative to the expectations of undecided voters, I would say that the order of finish was 1. Lord, 2. Brewer and 3. Graham.